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11.
This paper investigates nonlinearities in the dynamics of real exchange rates. We use Monte Carlo simulations to establish the size properties of the Teräsvirta-Anderson test, when the dynamics of the real exchange rate is influenced by an exogenous process. In addition, we show that a modified nonlinearity test, which includes additional right-hand-side variables, performs much better than the original in both Monte Carlo exercises and in the actual data on 1431 bilateral real exchange rate series. Finally, we investigate the dynamics of the real exchange rate for both developed and developing countries using the modified test for the recent floating period. In general, the results find a greater incidence of nonlinear dynamics for developing country real exchange rates. 相似文献
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传统粒子滤波(PF)直接采用状态转移先验分布作为重要性密度函数来近似后验概率密度函数,使得后验概率密度函数未包含量测信息。针对此问题,提出了一种改进高阶容积粒子滤波(CPF)的系统状态估计算法。算法采用七阶正交容积卡尔曼滤波(7th-CQKF)对PF的粒子进行传递,使得先验分布更新阶段融入最新量测信息;通过7th-CQKF设计重要性密度函数,提高对状态后验概率密度的逼近程度;通过反比例函数计算粒子权重,突出大噪声粒子与小噪声粒子权重差别,提高粒子有效性。仿真结果表明,改进高阶容积粒子滤波的估计精度高于容积粒子滤波(CPF)。 相似文献
14.
This note provides correction to Ichimura and Lee (2010). 相似文献
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JOSHUA R. HENDRICKSON 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2018,50(1):203-241
The Bullionist Controversy in the United Kingdom is one of the first debates about the determination of the price level and the exchange rate under a paper money standard. Despite the importance of the debate in the development of monetary theory, there remains little empirical evidence that uses modern, multivariate time series techniques. The evidence that does exist provides support for the Anti‐Bullionist position. The purpose of this paper is to review the debate and develop a dynamic general equilibrium model that is capable of capturing key features of the nineteenth‐century British financial system. The model is estimated using Bayesian procedures to test the competing hypotheses. The paper provides support for the Bullionist position. 相似文献
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In this paper, we consider portmanteau tests for testing the adequacy of multiplicative seasonal autoregressive moving‐average models under the assumption that the errors are uncorrelated but not necessarily independent. We relax the standard independence assumption on the error terms in order to extend the range of applications of the seasonal autoregressive moving‐average models. We study the asymptotic distributions of residual and normalized residual empirical autocovariances and autocorrelations under weak assumptions on noise. We establish the asymptotic behavior of the proposed statistics. A set of Monte Carlo experiments and an application to monthly mean total sunspot number are presented. 相似文献
18.
This paper investigates returns to women’s education by applying an optimal IV selection approach, post-Lasso IV estimation, which improves the first-stage predictive relationship between an endogenous regressor and instruments. Using the 2010 American Community Survey, we find that an extra year of education increases married women’s own income by $4,480 and spouse income by $8,822. Our findings indicate that 53% of the increase in women’s consumption by education is attributed to the marriage market, and thus, we conclude that the marriage market is the primary channel through which education improves women’s well-being. The results demonstrate the advantages of the post-Lasso approach: The resulting two-stage least squares estimator maintains efficiency without increasing finite sample bias and is less subject to the inconsistency problem when some instruments are invalid; This differs from the results using the instrument of birth quarters only, which is mostly applied in studies on returns to education. 相似文献
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We use a unique firm-level data set including 9000 companies from 26 European Union countries covering four different sectors to take a close look at the relationship between online exports and productivity. The online exporter productivity premium is estimated using different techniques (ordinary least squares, quantile regressions and robust estimation). Results consistently indicate that the estimated online exporter productivity premium is statistically different from zero, positive and significant from an economic point of view. European online exporters, according to these results, are approximately 2% more productive than non-online exporters. Productivity differences between firms could be related to variables that are not included in the empirical model. More research would be needed to address this issue in the future. 相似文献
20.
Leo H. Kahane 《Applied economics》2020,52(33):3574-3587
ABSTRACT County-level data are used to estimate the incumbent-party share of the two-party vote in the 2012 and the 2016 U.S. Presidential elections. Using a ‘seemingly unrelated estimation’ procedure the regression results for the two elections show that there were some clear differences in the size of marginal effects for several key covariates. For example, income inequality, the size of the black male and black female populations, the size of the Hispanic male population and percent of the population with a college degree all had significantly larger coefficients in 2016 than in 2012, producing a larger marginal effect in favour of the Democratic candidate’s vote share. On the other hand, counties with increased poverty rates and counties located on the periphery of urban centres had a significantly larger marginal effect favouring the Republican’s vote share in 2016 compared to 2012. Finally, the regression results show that the effects of third-party vote shares, though not statistically different across the two elections, had a positive impact on the Democratic vote share in both elections. 相似文献